中国人吃肉吃出的革命 NEW EATING HABITS FORCE REVOLUTION ON CHINAS FARMS

在上世纪90年代末，刘永好和他的几个兄弟一道名列中国首批富豪榜的榜首。他认为，中国支离破碎的小农户体系（各自销售自己的产出）必然会灭亡。

他表示：“现代工业及都市经济与小农经济之间的差距越来越大。我们需要实现农业现代化，这意味着规模。”

“近期发生的通胀和食品安全问题，都与我们的运作体系有关。如果一个体系里有2亿个生产单位、每个生产单位只养4、5头猪，我们怎么监管？”

美国的三大猪肉生产商为市场提供了大约80%的供应量。而在中国，名列前三的生产商总共能有10%的市场份额就算走运了。

刘永好正在将他的创业精力投入到建设一家单一的、垂直整合的全国饲料业务中。如果他取得成功，那么考虑到中国猪肉和其他肉类的消费规模，他必然会拥有全球最大的饲料业务。

刘永好不仅卖饲料，他还想控制从种畜到肉类加工的全过程。要实现这一目标，他将不得不与可能数以百万计的农民签订合同，并帮助他们融资。

刘永好认为，出于与近期中国乃至全球食品通胀不相干的原因，中国农业成本将会继续上升，以便与城市工资水平竞争，并转化为更高的物价水平。

他表示：“现在想养猪的农民更少了，70%多的中青年农民都已离开农村。在市场如此失衡的情况下，价格肯定会上涨。我认为，高价会维持一段时间。”

译者/李晖

NEW EATING HABITS FORCE REVOLUTION ON CHINA'S FARMS

China
, a small net exporter of rice and largely self- sufficient in wheat, has been something of a spectator in the global food crisis of recent months, with Beijing's role confined to tightening scrutiny of exports to prevent profiteering.

“There is no grain crisis in China at the moment, and there won't be for some time into the future,” says Cui Xiaoli, a researcher at the development research centre, a think-tank under China's cabinet.

The country's inflation hit 11-year highs in recent months, almost entirely because of an increase in food prices, but the government and many economists argue that these rises are a temporary phenomenon.

But the short-term calm of analysts such as Mr Cui belies the long-term pressures on Chinese agriculture, which are on the verge of triggering revolutions in the way China trades and farms its food. Those pressures could even send it offshore in search of arable land.