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class="post-title">å‡å¦‚人民å¸ä¸€æ¬¡æ€§å‡å€?/h2> <h4 class="post-date">2008å¹?æœ?8æ—?9:17:14 å‘布:GMP8.COM </h4> <div class="post-body"><p>一直以æ¥ï¼Œå…³äºŽäººæ°‘叿±‡çŽ‡åº”è¯¥å¦‚ä½•ç¡®å®šçš„é—®é¢˜ï¼Œç ”ç©¶è€…ä»¬æ€»æ˜¯äº‰è®ºä¸ä¼‘ã€‚è€Œäº‰è®ºçš„ç„¦ç‚¹ï¼Œä¸€æ˜¯åœ¨äºŽäººæ°‘å¸æ±‡çŽ‡åˆ°åº•åº”è¯¥å‡å€¼è¿˜æ˜¯ç»´æŒä¸å˜ï¼Œå½“ç„¶ä¹Ÿæœ‰ç ”ç©¶æŠ¥å‘Šè®¤ä¸ºäººæ°‘å¸æ±‡çŽ‡åº”è¯¥ä¸€æ¬¡æ€§è´¬å€¼ï¼›äºŒæ˜¯åœ¨äºŽå‡å€¼çš„路径,就是应该采å–å°å¹…攀å‡çš„å‡å€¼æ–¹å¼è¿˜æ˜¯ä¸€æ­¥åˆ°ä½çš„å‡å€¼æ–¹å¼ï¼›è¿™é‡Œå°¤ä»¥åŽè€…的争论最为激烈ã€?/p><p>对于两ç§è·¯å¾„ï¼Œå„æ–¹éƒ½æŒæœ‰å……分的ç†ç”±ï¼Œå…³é”®æ˜¯å“ªä¸€æ–¹çš„å‡å®šæ¡ä»¶å‡†ç¡®æ— è¯¯åœ°æ´žå½»äº†ä¸­å›½ç»æµŽçš„现实ã€?/p><p>剿®µæ—¶é—´ï¼Œç”±äºŽé€šè´§è†¨èƒ€åŽ‹åŠ›å¢žåŠ ï¼Œä¼—å¤šçš„å¸‚åœºåˆ†æžè€…æå‡ºäº†åŠ é€Ÿäººæ°‘å¸å‡å€¼çš„建议,认为由此å¯ä»¥é™ä½Žé€šèƒ€åŽ‹åŠ›ï¼ŒæŠ‘åˆ¶çƒ­é’±æµå…¥ã€‚但结果å´ä¸å°½å¦‚人æ„,通胀ä¾ç„¶è‚†è™ï¼Œçƒ­é’±åŠ å¿«æµå…¥ï¼Œå†åŠ ä¸Šè¶Šå—的现实教训,加快å‡å€¼è®ºè€…被é­å½“头釿£’,追éšçŽ‡æ˜Žæ˜¾é™ä½Žã€‚近日,åˆè§æ–°è¨€è®ºå’Œè§‚点,认为人民å¸åº”该择机一次性å‡å€¼åˆ°ä½ï¼Œç„¶åŽå†ç»´æŒç¨³å®šã€‚ç†ç”±æ˜¯ï¼Œè¿™æ ·é¦–å…ˆå¯ä»¥æ¶ˆé™¤äººæ°‘叿±‡çއå‡å€¼çš„预期,击退热钱;其次å¯ä»¥é™ä½Žè¿›å£å•†å“价格,为通胀å‡åŽ‹ï¼›å†æ¬¡å¯ä»¥æŠ‘制出å£è€Œå¢žåŠ è¿›å£ï¼Œå‡å°‘è´¸æ˜“ç›ˆä½™å æ¬¾å¸¦æ¥çš„æµåŠ¨æ€§å¢žåŠ ã€?/p><p>对此言论,笔者å二分的ä¸èµžåŒï¼Œè®¤ä¸ºå…¶è„±ç¦»äº†ä¸­å›½å½“å‰å®è§‚ç»æµŽçš„现实,纯属脱离一般å‡è¡¡çš„局部å‡è¡¡å‡æƒ³ã€‚这里,åè¯æ³•足以è¯ä¼ªå’Œé©³æ–¥ä»–们的论æ®ã€?/p><p>其一,人民å¸ä¸€æ¬¡æ€§å‡å€¼åˆ°ä½ï¼Œè€ŒåŽç»´æŒç¨³å®šã€‚问题在于å‡å€¼å¤šå°‘?如何维æŒç¨³å®šï¼Ÿå…ˆçœ‹å‡å€¼å¤šå°‘,对于人民å¸åˆ°åº•应该å‡å€¼å¤šå°‘æ‰å«åˆç†ï¼Œæ‰èƒ½å¤Ÿç»´æŒç¨³å®šå’Œå‡è¡¡ï¼Œææ€•没有人能够回答这样的问题,诺è´å°”ç»æµŽå­¦å®¶ä¹Ÿä¸ä¾‹å¤–。å†çœ‹ç»´æŒç¨³å®šï¼Œèƒ½å¤Ÿå®žçްå—?一旦å‡å€¼é—¸é—¨æ‰“开,å†å µææ€•å¹¶ä¸å®¹æ˜“ã€?/p><p>其二,å‡å¦‚人民å¸ä¸€æ¬¡æ€§å‡å€¼ï¼Œå‡å€¼é¢„期能够消除å—?预期是人们的主观行为,是基于现有趋势的预测,人民å¸ä¸€æ¬¡æ€§å¤§å¹…å‡å€¼ï¼Œæ”¹å˜çš„åªæ˜¯æœªæ¥å‡å€¼çš„空间,而ä¸ä¸€å®šå°±èƒ½å¤Ÿæ‰­è½¬å‡å€¼é¢„期。相åï¼Œåœ¨æ±‡çŽ‡çš„ç†æ€§èŒƒå›´æ— æ³•确定的情况下,还有å¯èƒ½ä¼šå¼ºåŒ–å‡å€¼é¢„期ã€?/p><p>其三,如果å‡å€¼è¿‡åº¦ï¼Œå¯¼è‡´çƒ­é’±å¤§è§„æ¨¡æ’¤å‡ºï¼ŒåŽæžœä¸å ªè®¾æƒ³ã€‚中国社会科学院近日的一份研究报告显示,中国目å‰å·²ç»é›†èšäº†å¤§é‡å›½é™…热钱,规模达到1.75万亿美元,接近于我国的外汇储备总é¢ã€‚虽然这样的数æ®ä¸ä¸€å®šçœŸå®žï¼Œä½†çƒ­é’±æ¶ŒåŠ¨å·²æ˜¯ä¸äº‰çš„事实。此时,å‡å¦‚人民å¸å¤§å¹…度一次性å‡å€¼ï¼Œçƒ­é’±çš„获利渠é“被切断,短期内热钱迅速撤离是必然的结果,如此巨大的外资撤出,对于我国金èžçš„æ‰“击是难以估é‡çš„ã€?/p><p>其四,关于一次性å‡å€¼ä¸Žè´¸æ˜“顺差å‡å°‘。顺差å‡å°‘ç‰ºç‰²çš„æ˜¯ç»æµŽå¢žé•¿å’Œå‡ºå£ä¼ä¸šçš„生存,此为顾此失彼,实难æˆä¸ºè‰¯ç­–ã€?/p><p>其五,关于一次性å‡å€¼ä¸Žè¿›å£å•†å“价格下é™ã€‚我国的进å£éœ€æ±‚å¹¶ä¸å¼ºçƒˆï¼Œæ­¤ç§èƒŒæ™¯ä¸‹å‡å€¼å¯¹äºŽç¼“解通货膨胀的贡献实在微乎其微ã€ä¸è¶³æŒ‚齿ã€?/p><p>故此,我们ä¸éš¾æƒ³åƒï¼Œå‡å¦‚人民å¸ä¸€æ¬¡æ€§çš„大幅å‡å€¼åˆ°ä¸€ä¸ªå‡æƒ³ä¸­çš„å‡è¡¡æ°´å¹³ï¼Œæœ€å…ˆæƒŠåŠ¨çš„å¿…ç„¶æ˜¯å›½é™…çƒ­é’±ï¼Œå®ƒä»¬ä¼šåº”å£°æ’¤é€€ï¼Œç´§æŽ¥ç€ä¸­å›½è‚¡å¸‚å’Œæˆ¿å¸‚å¤§è·Œï¼Œé“¶è¡Œä¿¡è´·å±æœºæš´å‘ï¼Œé€šè´§è†¨èƒ€å†æ¬¡é«˜æ¶¨ï¼Œå®žä½“ç»æµŽåœæ»žç ´äº§ï¼Œè€ŒåŽé‡‘èžå’Œç»æµŽå±æœºæš´å‘,并波åŠå’Œä¼ æŸ“到亚洲其他国家,å几年å‰å¸­å·äºšæ´²çš„金èžé£“é£Žå†æ¬¡é™ä¸´ã€?/p><p>这样的推ç†è™½ç„¶æ¯”较å±è¨€è€¸å¬ï¼Œæœ‰å¤¸å¤§äº‹æ€å‘å±•ä¹‹å«Œï¼Œä½†å‡æƒ³çš„结果究竟如何æ¶åŒ–å¹¶ä¸é‡è¦ã€‚笔者想è¦è¡¨è¾¾çš„æ˜¯ï¼Œåœ¨å½“å‰çƒ­é’±æ¶ŒåŠ¨çš„å½¢åŠ¿ä¸‹ï¼Œäººæ°‘å¸åˆ‡ä¸å¯ä»¥ä¸€æ¬¡æ€§å¤§å¹…å‡å€¼ï¼Œå¦åˆ™ï¼Œåˆ™æŸå¤±çš„ä¸ä»…ä»…æ˜¯ç»æµŽå¢žé•¿ï¼Œè¿˜æœ‰å¯èƒ½ä¼šå¼•å‘金èžå±æœºã€‚ï¼ˆæŽæ˜¥é¡?夿—¦å¤§å­¦ä¸–ç•Œç»æµŽç³»åšå£«ç”Ÿï¼?/p><p 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